Our new Senedd (Welsh Parliament) Voting Intention tracker shows Plaid Cymru as the largest party for the first time

Turnout adjusted, ‘Don’t know’ respondents squeezed. Full methodology listed below or in the data tables. Find Out Now interviewed a sample of 1,503 GB adults from the 16th December 2025 to 4th January 2026 which is nationally representative by: Gender, Age, Welsh region, Welsh speaking and 2024 General Election

Headline findings:

• Plaid Cymru top a Senedd (Welsh Parliament) voting intention poll for the first time
• Although Reform UK haven’t lost any vote share since our last Senedd VI poll in June, Plaid Cymru have gained 3 points to move into first place
• Labour fall further, remaining in third place, but almost level with the Conservatives

Our methodology:

• We ask respondents how likely they would vote if there were a Senedd (Welsh Parliament) election tomorrow. To those who said ‘definitely’ or ‘very likely’ we then ask their vote choice
• If a respondent answers ‘Don’t know’ they see an additional question, prompting them again to give an answer. If they then give a valid vote choice they are included in the final calculation, but if they answer ‘Don’t know’ again they are excluded from the final headline calculation
• If a respondent was eligible but didn’t vote at the last general election, they are only included in the final headline calculation if they say they are ‘definitely’ going to vote this time. This is because past voting behaviour is generally more predictive than their declared intentions
• The final sample is filtered and weighted (more details here) to be nationally representative by Gender, Age, Welsh region, Welsh speaking and 2024 General Election

Full data tables can be found here

This poll was initiated solely by Find Out Now and not funded by any third party

Find Out Now is an MRS company partner, a member of the British Polling Council and abides by their rules. To find out more about our research offer, please visit our services page or contact ask@findoutnow.co.uk