Our new Senedd (Welsh Parliament) Voting Intention tracker shows Reform as the largest party, with Labour in third pace

Turnout adjusted, ‘Don’t know’ respondents squeezed. Full methodology listed below or in the data tables. Find Out Now interviewed a sample of 2,101 GB adults from the 5th to 16th June which is nationally representative by: Gender, Age, Welsh region, Welsh speaking and 2024 General Election

Headline findings:

• Reform UK top a Senedd (Welsh Parliament) voting intention poll for the first time
• They do this by maintaining almost all their support from the last General Election, in addition to gaining a third of 2024 Conservative voters, and almost 4 in 10 (39 per cent) of previous non-voters  
• Less than half (47 per cent) of 2024 Labour voters say they’d now vote for the party if a Senedd (Welsh Parliament) election was held tomorrow. A third of them (31 per cent) would now vote for Plaid Cymru

Our methodology:

• We ask respondents how likely they would vote if there were a Senedd (Welsh Parliament) election tomorrow. To those who said ‘definitely’ or ‘very likely’ we then ask their vote choice
• If a respondent answers ‘Don’t know’ they see an additional question, prompting them again to give an answer. If they then give a valid vote choice they are included in the final calculation, but if they answer ‘Don’t know’ again they are excluded from the final headline calculation
• If a respondent was eligible but didn’t vote at the last general election, they are only included in the final headline calculation if they say they are ‘definitely’ going to vote this time. This is because past voting behaviour is generally more predictive than their declared intentions
• The final sample is filtered and weighted (more details here) to be nationally representative by Gender, Age, Welsh region, Welsh speaking and 2024 General Election

Full data tables can be found here

This poll was initiated solely by Find Out Now and not funded by any third party

Find Out Now is an MRS company partner, a member of the British Polling Council and abides by their rules. To find out more about our research offer, please visit our services page or contact ask@findoutnow.co.uk