Our Senedd (Welsh Parliament) voting intention survey shows Plaid Cymru in the lead and Labour in fifth place

Turnout adjusted, ‘Don’t know’ respondents squeezed. Full methodology listed below or in the data tables. Find Out Now interviewed a sample of 2,012 GB adults from the 18th to 22nd April which is nationally representative by: Gender, Age, Welsh region, Welsh speaking and 2024 General Election

Headline findings:

• Plaid Cymru remain in first place, same as our December Senedd VI
• Labour have fallen to 5th place, going from 18% in June to 10% today
• A majority (55-16) don’t think the NHS would be safe under a Reform government. This extends to 77-23 when excluding ‘Don’t know’ respondents

Our methodology:

• We ask respondents how likely they are to vote in the upcoming Senedd (Welsh Parliament) election. To those who said ‘definitely’ or ‘very likely’ we then ask their vote choice
• If a respondent answers ‘Don’t know’ they see an additional question, prompting them again to give an answer. If they then give a valid vote choice they are included in the final calculation, but if they answer ‘Don’t know’ again they are excluded from the final headline calculation
• If a respondent was eligible but didn’t vote at the last general election, they are only included in the final headline calculation if they say they are ‘definitely’ going to vote this time. This is because past voting behaviour is generally more predictive than their declared intentions
• The final sample is filtered and weighted (more details here) to be nationally representative by Gender, Age, Welsh region, Welsh speaking and 2024 General Election

Full data tables can be found here

This poll was commissioned by Plaid Cymru. The methodology is identical to our previous Welsh voting intention surveys which were initiated solely by Find Out Now

Find Out Now is an MRS company partner, a member of the British Polling Council and abides by their rules. To find out more about our research offer, please visit our services page or contact ask@findoutnow.co.uk