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Yes would win in hypothetical Scottish Independence Referendum

Chris Holbrook Find Out Now Market Research

Chris Holbrook

27th Jun, 2023 | 2 mins read

Find Out Now have conducted a hypothetical Scottish Independence Referendum voting intention poll for Independent Voices finding that 47.9% would vote Yes, 45% No, and 7.1% Don’t know. We adjusted our methodology on this occasion to use more up to date population quota estimates from the ONS, taken from the 2021 census, as well as including quotas for the 2014 Independence Referendum, taking ageing into account.

If there were a referendum on Scottish independence with the question, “Should Scotland be an independent country?”, how would you vote?

Yes: 47.9%
No: 45%
I don’t know: 7.1%

The survey asked 5,300 Scottish adults how they would vote, and how likely they would be to vote, before outputting a representative sample size of 1,035 based on ONS’s 2021 population estimates for age, gender, Scottish region, social economic group, EU 2016 vote, GE 2019 vote, Indyref 2014 vote, and turnout likelihood. The past vote quotas were also adjusted for an ageing population, namely increasing the “could not vote” quotas, and decreasing the other quotas accordingly.


Turnout adjusted voting intention results
Non turnout adjusted voting intention results
Turnout adjusted turnout likelihood results
Non turnout adjusted turnout likelihood results

More information about our methodology can be found here.