Would the next Conservative leader beat Starmer?
A nationally representative poll of 1,261 GB Adults for The Guardian and with Electoral Calculus, finds that Labour, lead by Keir Starmer, would win by at least 9pc in a hypothetical General Election against the Tory leadership candidates.
The poll asked respondents which party they would vote for in a number of hypothetical general elections with each of Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt and Liz Truss leading the Conservative party. The results were adjusted to take voting likelihood into account.
| Party | Sunak | Mordaunt | Truss |
| CON | 25% | 27% | 25% |
| LAB | 37% | 36% | 37% |
| LIB | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Reform | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Green | 10% | 9% | 9% |
Key points
- None of the three likely leaders is an election winner
- Labour have at least a 9pc lead over the Conservatives whichever leader is chosen
- Labour are likely to have an overall parliamentary majority whichever leader is chosen
- Penny Mordaunt is slightly more likely to make voters choose the Conservatives
- Sunak and Truss are about the same.
For more analysis please see more on Electoral Calculus
About the survey
Find Out Now polled 1,261 GB adults online on 18-19 July 2022. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns.
Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.