Find Out Now have conducted a hypothetical Westminster voting intention poll of a nationally representative sample of 1,009 respondents, from the 31st of October to the 1st of November. The results show Labour holding the highest share of the vote at 45%, with the Conservatives at 23%.

Analysis

These results are presented with “I don’t know,” “Prefer not to say,” or “Would not vote.” removed. Additionally, we adjusted for voter likelihood by disregarding anyone who indicated a likelihood below a threshold in an additional voting likelihood question.

Below are the unadjusted results, excluding options comprising less than 1% of the voting share for clarity. For a comprehensive breakdown, refer to the detailed tables at the page’s end.

Including “I don’t know” and “prefer not to say”, but with turnout adjustments:

Without any adjustments:

A closer examination of the data reveals that the larger political parties experience the most significant increase in their share of the vote, in contrast to smaller parties. Any upswing in the vote share for smaller parties remains marginal, as observed with the Liberal Democrats and Greens, or non-existent, as seen with Reform and SNP. Hypothetical voting intention polling doesn’t, and cannot, take into account tactical voting as it would occur in a real election.

How Turnout Adjustment Works

Our methodology involved surveying 2,461 adults from Great Britain, carefully selecting a nationally representative sample of 1,009 respondents by applying extensive filters based on gender, age, social class, region, Brexit Vote, and 2019 General Election. Subsequently, we adjusted the data for voter turnout, focusing on those who rated their likelihood to vote at 6 or higher on a scale ranging from “0 – Certain not to vote” to “10 – Certain to vote.” This meticulous approach ensures that our findings accurately reflect the dynamic nature of voter participation and political preferences.

Tables

On a scale from 0 to 10, how likely do you think you are to vote if there was a general election tomorrow? (0 – certain not tovote, 10 – certain to vote). (Without voting likelihood adjustment)

If there was an election tomorrow, who would you vote for? (Without voting likelihood adjustment)

On a scale from 0 to 10, how likely do you think you are to vote if there was a general election tomorrow? (0 – certain not tovote, 10 – certain to vote). (With voting likelihood adjustment)

If there was an election tomorrow, who would you vote for? (With voting likelihood adjustment)

About this survey

Find Out Now interviewed 2,462 GB adults from 2023-10-31 to 2023-11-01, and produced a sample of 1,009 respondents which is nationally representative by: Gender, Age, Social Class, Region, Brexit Vote, and 2019 General Election.

Find Out Now are members of the British Polling Council and Market Research Society and abide by their rules.

For further information, or to request a poll or survey, contact us on ask@findoutnow.co.uk.

Photo by Massimiliano Morosinotto on Unsplash