Our new Voting Intention tracker shows a 10 point lead for Reform over Labour

Turnout adjusted, ‘Don’t know’ respondents squeezed. Full methodology listed below or in the data tables. Find Out Now interviewed a sample of 2,654 GB adults on 30th July which is nationally representative by: Gender, Age, Region, Ethnicity and 2024 General Election

How have the results changed over time?

Due to the margin of error (the statistical range within which the true result is likely to fall, usually 2-3% for polls), small week-on-week changes in results may be caused more by random sampling variation, rather than reflect genuine shifts in public opinion. Presenting the results as a rolling average evens out week-on-week distortions.

The main trend since the General Election has been the growth of Reform UK, driven by them by retaining almost all of their 2024 GE support (retaining far more than any other party), winning over a third (33%) of 2024 GE Conservative voters, and winning over half (54%) of people who didn’t vote in 2024 but say they would “definitely vote” this time. 

	2nd July	9th July	16th July	23rd July	30th July	(change over last month)
Conservative	16	19	17	16	17	+1
Labour	22	22	20	20	20	-2
Reform UK	30	31	30	34	30	–
Liberal Democrats	15	13	13	14	13	-2
Green Party	11	9	12	10	9	-2

How does Find Out Now differ from other polling companies?

We have recently published an article ‘How pollsters may be understating the Reform vote’ which helps explain the difference between Find Out Now and other pollsters regarding Reform voting intentions. 

You can also watch our webinar which presented the findings.

Our methodology:

• We ask respondents how likely they would vote if there were a general election tomorrow. To those who said ‘definitely’ or ‘very likely’ we then ask their vote choice
• If a respondent answers ‘Don’t know’ they see an additional question, prompting them again to give an answer. If they then give a valid vote choice they are included in the final calculation, but if they answer ‘Don’t know’ again they are excluded from the final headline calculation
• If a respondent was eligible but didn’t vote at the last general election, they are only included in the final headline calculation if they say they are ‘definitely’ going to vote this time. This is because past voting behaviour is generally more predictive than their declared intentions
• The final sample is filtered and weighted (more details here) to be nationally representative by Gender, Age, Region, Ethnicity and 2024 General Election vote
• A deeper discussion of our methodology in the context of the 2024 General Election can be found here

Full data tables can be found here

This poll was initiated solely by Find Out Now and not funded by any third party

Find Out Now is an MRS company partner, a member of the British Polling Council and abides by their rules. To find out more about our research offer, please visit our services page or contact ask@findoutnow.co.uk