Our new Voting Intention tracker shows an increase in the Reform vote share, to their highest score since February

Turnout adjusted, ‘Don’t know’ respondents squeezed. Full methodology listed below or in the data tables. Find Out Now interviewed a sample of 1,990 GB adults on 30th April which is nationally representative by: Gender, Age, Region, Ethnicity and 2024 General Election

How have the results changed over time?

Due to the margin of error (the statistical range within which the true result is likely to fall, usually 2-3% for polls), small week-on-week changes in results may be caused more by random sampling variation, rather than reflect genuine shifts in public opinion. Presenting the results instead as a rolling average helps even out any week-on-week distortions. It shows Reform returning to their February peak, and Labour losing 3 points over the same period, primarily to the benefit of the Lib Dems.

The main trend since the General Election has been the growth of Reform UK, driven by them by retaining almost all of their 2024 GE support (retaining far more than any other party), winning almost a third (31%) of 2024 GE Conservative voters, and winning half (52%) of people who didn’t vote in 2024 but say they would “definitely vote” this time. 

	2nd April	9th April	16th April	23rd April	30th April	(change over last month)
Conservative	20	21	20	20	19	-1
Labour	22	22	22	20	21	-1
Reform UK	28	26	28	28	29	+1
Liberal Democrats	13	14	14	14	13	–
Green Party	11	11	10	13	11	–

How does Find Out Now differ from other polling companies?

Unlike some polling companies, we explicitly ask about people’s likelihood to vote – before asking them which party they plan to vote for – which factors into our final headline VI calculation. In our experience, running a voting intention as a single question with a ‘would not vote’ option encourages respondents to select a party even if they are unlikely to vote, which inflates declared turnout. Given Labour voters (in particular) are less likely than others to say they’re planning to vote, not accounting for this understates the impact of turnout differentials in the headline calculations.

In addition, when respondents say they ‘Don’t know’ how they plan to vote (even after prompting) we exclude them from the final headline VI calculation. This approach differs from some other companies. Some pollsters impute the voting intention of these respondents based on other respondents in the same poll with similar demographics and previous voting behaviour. Others explicitly reallocate these respondents based on how they previously voted – i.e. a 2024 Labour voter who now says they ‘don’t know’ how they would vote, is counted towards the Labour total.

While those approaches allow for a more stable voting intention series over time, our approach makes our voting intentions more sensitive to the current stated voting behaviour of respondents. Both approaches are valid – but helps explains why our final headline vote shares may be different to other pollsters.

Our methodology:

• We ask respondents how likely they would vote if there were a general election tomorrow. To those who said ‘definitely’ or ‘very likely’ we then ask their vote choice
• If a respondent answers ‘Don’t know’ they see an additional question, prompting them again to give an answer. If they then give a valid vote choice they are included in the final calculation, but if they answer ‘Don’t know’ again they are excluded from the final headline calculation
• If a respondent was eligible but didn’t vote at the last general election, they are only included in the final headline calculation if they say they are ‘definitely’ going to vote this time. This is because past voting behaviour is generally more predictive than their declared intentions
• The final sample is filtered and weighted (more details here) to be nationally representative by Gender, Age, Region, Ethnicity and 2024 General Election vote
• A deeper discussion of our methodology in the context of the 2024 General Election can be found here

Full data tables can be found here

This poll was initiated solely by Find Out Now and not funded by any third party