Our new Voting Intention tracker finds the Conservatives as the most popular party with a 2 point lead over Labour.

Key findings:

• The Conservatives are the most popular party, holding a 2 point lead over Labour
• While this shows only a small change in the Conservative vote share since the 2024 GE (gaining 2 points), this represents an almost 10 point drop for Labour
• Reform have seen the largest gain, increasing their 2024 GE support by almost 50%. This is driven equally by former Conservatives and those who didn’t vote at the last election
• The combined vote share of Labour and the Conservatives is only 52%. This would be the lowest combined vote share for the two major parties in British history

Our methodology:

• We ask respondents how likely they would vote if there were a general election tomorrow. To those who said ‘definitely’ or ‘very likely’ we then ask their vote choice
• If a respondent answers ‘Don’t know’ they see an additional question, prompting them again to give an answer. If they then give a valid vote choice they are included, but if they answer ‘Don’t know’ again they are excluded from the final headline calculation
• If a respondent was eligible but didn’t vote at the last general election, they are only included in the final headline calculation if they say they are ‘definitely’ going to vote this time. This is because past voting behaviour is generally more predictive than declared intentions
• The final sample is filtered and weighted (more details here) to be nationally representative by Gender, Age, Region and 2024 General Election vote
• A deeper discussion of our methodology in the context of the 2024 General Election can be found here

Full data tables can be found here