Our Voting Intention tracker shows Labour on their lowest-ever vote share

Turnout adjusted, ‘Don’t know’ respondents squeezed. Full methodology listed below or in the data tables. Find Out Now interviewed a sample of 2,705 GB adults on 15th October which is nationally representative by: Gender, Age, Region, Ethnicity and 2024 General Election

How have the results changed over time?

Due to the margin of error (the statistical range within which the true result is likely to fall, usually 2-3% for polls), small week-on-week changes in results may be caused more by random sampling variation, rather than reflect genuine shifts in public opinion. Presenting the results as a rolling average evens out week-on-week distortions.

The main trend since the General Election has been the growth of Reform UK, driven by them by retaining almost all of their 2024 GE support (retaining far more than any other party), winning over a third of 2024 GE Conservative voters, and winning a majority of people who didn’t vote in 2024 but say they would “definitely vote” this time. 

	17th September	24th September	1st October	8th October	15th October	(change over last month)
Conservative	16	14	14	17	16	–
Labour	16	17	19	17	15	-1
Reform UK	34	33	35	32	32	-2
Liberal Democrats	13	16	12	12	12	-1
Green Party	12	12	11	15	15	+3

How does Find Out Now differ from other polling companies?

We have recently published an article ‘How pollsters may be understating the Reform vote’ which helps explain the difference between Find Out Now and other pollsters regarding Reform voting intentions. 

You can also watch our webinar which presented the findings.

Our methodology:

• We ask respondents how likely they would vote if there were a general election tomorrow. To those who said ‘definitely’ or ‘very likely’ we then ask their vote choice
• If a respondent answers ‘Don’t know’ they see an additional question, prompting them again to give an answer. If they then give a valid vote choice they are included in the final calculation, but if they answer ‘Don’t know’ again they are excluded from the final headline calculation
• If a respondent was eligible but didn’t vote at the last general election, they are only included in the final headline calculation if they say they are ‘definitely’ going to vote this time. This is because past voting behaviour is generally more predictive than their declared intentions
• The final sample is filtered and weighted (more details here) to be nationally representative by Gender, Age, Region, Ethnicity and 2024 General Election vote
• A deeper discussion of our methodology in the context of the 2024 General Election can be found here

Full data tables can be found here

This poll was initiated solely by Find Out Now and not funded by any third party

Find Out Now is an MRS company partner, a member of the British Polling Council and abides by their rules. To find out more about our research offer, please visit our services page or contact ask@findoutnow.co.uk