Our new Voting Intention tracker finds a close race between Labour, Reform UK and the Conservatives. Despite an increase in support for Reform, Labour are the most popular party by a slight margin

Turnout adjusted, ‘Don’t know’ respondents squeezed. Full methodology listed below. Find Out Now interviewed 5,043 GB adults on 11th December and produced a sample of 4,694 respondents which is nationally representative by: Gender, Age, Region and 2024 General Election

How have the results changed over time?

Due to the margin of error (the statistical range within which the true result is likely to fall, usually 2-3% for opinion polls), small week-on-week changes in results may be caused more by random sampling variation, rather than reflect true changes in public opinion. In addition, due to Labour, the Conservatives and Reform UK being very close together, their relative rankings can change very easily, even if there are only slight changes in their levels of support.

	GE 2024	27th Nov	4th Dec	11th Dec
Conservative	24	27	26	23
Labour	35	25	23	26
Reform UK	15	22	24	25
Liberal Democrats	13	12	11	11
Green Party	7	9	9	9

However, when looking at the results from our last three voting intentions in unison, the following trends can be discerned and seem likely to reflect genuine shifts in public opinion:

• Slight decline in Conservative support
• Labour broadly steady (even if results have fluctuated between polls)
• Slight rise in Reform support
• No changes for other parties 

How does Find Out Now differ from other polling companies?

Unlike some polling companies, we explicitly ask about people’s likelihood to vote – before asking them which party they plan to vote for – which factors into our final headline VI calculation. In our experience, running a voting intention as a single question with a ‘would not vote’ option encourages respondents to select a party even if they are unlikely to vote, which inflates declared turnout. Given Labour voters (in particular) are less likely than others to say they’re planning to vote, not accounting for this understates the impact of turnout differential in the headline calculations.

In addition, when respondents say they ‘Don’t know’ how they plan to vote (even after prompting) we exclude them from the final headline VI calculation. This approach differs from other companies. Some pollsters impute the voting intention of these respondents based on other respondents in the same poll with similar demographics and previous voting behaviour. Others explicitly reallocate these respondents based on how they previously voted – i.e. a 2024 Labour voter who now says they ‘don’t know’ how they would vote, is counted towards the Labour total.

While those approaches allow for a more stable voting intention series over time, our approach makes our voting intentions more sensitive to the current stated voting behaviour of respondents. Both approaches are valid – but helps explains why our final headline vote shares are different to other pollsters.

Our methodology:

• We ask respondents how likely they would vote if there were a general election tomorrow. To those who said ‘definitely’ or ‘very likely’ we then ask their vote choice
• If a respondent answers ‘Don’t know’ they see an additional question, prompting them again to give an answer. If they then give a valid vote choice they are included in the final calculation, but if they answer ‘Don’t know’ again they are excluded from the final headline calculation
• If a respondent was eligible but didn’t vote at the last general election, they are only included in the final headline calculation if they say they are ‘definitely’ going to vote this time. This is because past voting behaviour is generally more predictive than their declared intentions
• The final sample is filtered and weighted (more details on our panel methodology here) to be nationally representative by Gender, Age, Region and 2024 General Election vote
• A deeper discussion of our methodology can be found in our investigation into polling during the 2024 General Election

Full data tables available here

This poll was initiated solely by Find Out Now and not funded by any third party