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Tory woes leave them 8 points behind Labour in our latest poll

Chris Holbrook Find Out Now Market Research

Chris Holbrook

21st Dec, 2021 | 7 mins read

Our recent poll of 1,017 GB Adults from the 14-15th of December, with election experts Electoral Calculus, shows a 9% drop in support for the Conservative Party since our last poll at the end of November. The survey for The Telegraph also asked about recent “Christmas Party” revelations, and perceptions of the current Conservative party’s competence and trustworthiness.

The headline voting intention results are as follows:

Party% Vote share GE 2019Seats won GE 2019% Vote share PollPredicted seats won
CON4536530236
LAB3320338320
LIB12111011
Reform2270
Green31101

This result is a huge swing from the Conservatives to Labour and is large enough to make Sir Keir Starmer the new Prime Minister, with just 6 seats short of an overall majority.

The recent shock defeat in North Shropshire is widely attributed to a loss of trust and confidence in the Boris Johnson’s Conservative government. The survey went on to ask a number of questions that confirm this:

Do you trust the government less as a result of reports of a Christmas party in Downing Street in December last year?

Responses% of all voters% of CON voters
Yes, I trust the government less64%42%
No, I trust the government all the same24%46%
Don’t know12%12%

Do you think the government is competent?

Responses% of all voters% of CON voters
Yes22%49%
No63%33%
Don’t know16%18%

“How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements about the current government?”

StatementAgree (net)NeutralDisagree (net)Don’t know
This government can relate to ordinary people10%15%72%3%
This government is in it for themselves69%16%12%3%
This government is on the side of ordinary people10%17%70%3%

Looking just at those who voted Conservative at the last general election:

StatementAgree (net)NeutralDisagree (net)Don’t know
This government can relate to ordinary people25%31%44%1%
This government is in it for themselves43%29%27%2%
This government is on the side of ordinary people24%34%41%2%

Quotes

“Both the by-election and our poll bring grim news for the government. As well as being rejected by voters in Shropshire North, the Conservatives are also losing support nationally and would be unlikely to remain in government. The public, including many Conservative voters, think the government is out-of-touch, selfish and incompetent. Boris Johnson will hope that things look better for him in after Christmas, but the year ends with the Conservatives in their worst position since he took over as leader.”

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus

“We’ve become accustomed to this government’s ability to shrug off its problems, but it looks as if recent events may finally have stripped Johnson’s teflon coat. It remains to be seen whether the damage will sustain until the next General Election, but his party might act sooner.”

Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now

Technical Details

Find Out Now polled 1,017 GB adults online between 14-15 December 2021. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns.

Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.

Tables

Voting likelihood

Voting Intention