Our recent poll of 1,017 GB Adults from the 14-15th of December, with election experts Electoral Calculus, shows a 9% drop in support for the Conservative Party since our last poll at the end of November. The survey for The Telegraph also asked about recent “Christmas Party” revelations, and perceptions of the current Conservative party’s competence and trustworthiness.

The headline voting intention results are as follows:

Party	% Vote share GE 2019	Seats won GE 2019	% Vote share Poll	Predicted seats won
CON	45	365	30	236
LAB	33	203	38	320
LIB	12	11	10	11
Reform	2	2	7	0
Green	3	1	10	1

This result is a huge swing from the Conservatives to Labour and is large enough to make Sir Keir Starmer the new Prime Minister, with just 6 seats short of an overall majority.

The recent shock defeat in North Shropshire is widely attributed to a loss of trust and confidence in the Boris Johnson’s Conservative government. The survey went on to ask a number of questions that confirm this:

“Do you trust the government less as a result of reports of a Christmas party in Downing Street in December last year?”

Responses	% of all voters	% of CON voters
Yes, I trust the government less	64%	42%
No, I trust the government all the same	24%	46%
Don’t know	12%	12%

“Do you think the government is competent?”

Responses	% of all voters	% of CON voters
Yes	22%	49%
No	63%	33%
Don’t know	16%	18%

“How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements about the current government?”

Statement	Agree (net)	Neutral	Disagree (net)	Don’t know
This government can relate to ordinary people	10%	15%	72%	3%
This government is in it for themselves	69%	16%	12%	3%
This government is on the side of ordinary people	10%	17%	70%	3%

Looking just at those who voted Conservative at the last general election:

Statement	Agree (net)	Neutral	Disagree (net)	Don’t know
This government can relate to ordinary people	25%	31%	44%	1%
This government is in it for themselves	43%	29%	27%	2%
This government is on the side of ordinary people	24%	34%	41%	2%

Quotes

“Both the by-election and our poll bring grim news for the government. As well as being rejected by voters in Shropshire North, the Conservatives are also losing support nationally and would be unlikely to remain in government. The public, including many Conservative voters, think the government is out-of-touch, selfish and incompetent. Boris Johnson will hope that things look better for him in after Christmas, but the year ends with the Conservatives in their worst position since he took over as leader.”

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus

“We’ve become accustomed to this government’s ability to shrug off its problems, but it looks as if recent events may finally have stripped Johnson’s teflon coat. It remains to be seen whether the damage will sustain until the next General Election, but his party might act sooner.”

Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now

Technical Details

Find Out Now polled 1,017 GB adults online between 14-15 December 2021. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns.

Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.

Tables

Voting likelihood

Voting Intention