Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus have conducted a joint poll for the Independent to understand tactical voting intentions. 2,881 UK adults were asked if and how they planned to tactically vote in the next General Election.
- Conservatives are set to lose the most from tactical voting, with tactical voting estimated to cost them 35 seats in our projection.
- Likewise Labour and Liberal Democrats have the most to gain with 28 and 7 seats respectively.
- Smaller parties have more support than in voting intention polls, with 20% support for Greens Vs. 5% in voting intention polls.
How tactical voting changes votes
- Conservative supporters tend to go Lib Dem or Reform
- Labour supporters mostly go to the Lib Dems or the Greens
- Lib Dem supporters go to Labour, the Greens, and a few to the Conservatives
- Reform supporters mostly go to the Conservatives
- Green supporters mostly go to Labour and the Lib Dems
Questions we asked
We know that many people in your area didn’t vote in the last general election. How likely do you think you are to vote in the next general election on a scale from 0 to 10? (10 – certain to vote, 0 – certain not to vote): England, Scotland, Wales
Suppose your first-choice party is unlikely to win the seat, but your second-choice party could. On a scale of 0-10, how likely are you to switch your vote to your second-choice party? (10 – certain to switch to my second-choice party, 0 – certain to stay with my first-choice party): England, Scotland, Wales
The role of tactical voting will prove vital as voters try and game the First Past the Post system to oust the incumbent Conservatives. The ultimate winners from tactical voting from this poll are Labour, with the additional votes adding to their existing lead.
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