The National newspaper in Scotland commissioned Find Out Now to conduct a nationally representative survey of Scottish voting intention for both a hypothetical Holyrood and a hypothetical Westminster election. In addition to voting intention, we also asked for voting likelihood and adjusted the results for a 66.6% turnout for Holyrood, and 65.7% turnout for Westminster. In addition, we also asked for voting intention and likelihood for a hypothetical Independence Referendum. After turnout adjustment (to 72.8%) we found a 4 point lead for Yes (to Independence), which is consistent with our past ‘Indyref2’ polls.

Holyrood Constituency Results

Party	Vote share
Scottish Conservatives	13.5%
Scottish Labour	17.3%
Scottish National Party	31.3%
Scottish Liberal Democrats	7.8%
Scottish Greens	6.6%
Reform UK	9.4%
Alba Party	1.8%
Other	1.7%
Don’t know	10.4%

Holyrood Regional Results

Party	Vote share
Scottish Conservatives	12.2%
Scottish Labour	14.4%
Scottish National Party (SNP)	22.1%
Scottish Liberal Democrats	8.7%
Scottish Greens	11.1%
Reform UK	9.7%
Alba Party	4.8%
Other	2.6%
Don’t know	14.5%

Westminster Results

Party	Vote share
Conservatives	13.1%
Labour	19%
Liberal Democrats	8.8%
Reform UK	14.7%
Green Party	6.1%
Scottish National Party (SNP)	32.3%
Other	1.6%
Don’t know	4.4%

Independence Referendum Results

Party	Vote share	Vote share (turnout adjusted)
Yes	42.4%	49.5%
No	41.3%	45.2%
Don’t know	16.4%	5.3%

Find Out Now interviewed a sample of 1,774 respondents between the 17th and 24th December 2024, weighted to be representative of Scotland by: Gender, Age, Region, and 2024 General Election vote. All respondents were 18+. Full tables can be downloaded here.

Important notes

Not everyone who answers a poll about voting, would actually vote in a real election or referendum. It is important to note that unlikeliness to vote is not the same as selecting “I don’t know”. We adjust the results to the voting intention question (Yes, No, or I don’t know) by only including those who say they are most likely to turn up to vote. Our voting likelihood adjustment sets the threshold for counting a response as a vote or not so that the overall turnout would be close to what it was in the last election/referendum.

For the Independence poll, the lead for Yes is more narrow. This is because Yes respondents answer that they are more likely compared to No respondents, so more of their voting intention answers are included in the turnout adjusted results.

It is unclear whether this would accurately reflect the respondents’ behaviour in a real world referendum. When faced with a real-world outcome they do not like, they may become more motivated to act. In addition, our (and others’) hypothetical voting intention polling does not, and cannot, take into account the campaigning that would precede a real-world referendum or election. No could perform better than expected, but the reverse could also be true.

Finally, it is important to note that the sample contains no 16-17 year olds, as our panel is 18 years old and older only. The 2014 Independence Referendum allowed 16-17 to vote.