On 12th to 14th March Find Out Now ran a poll of Runcorn and Helsby residents, ahead of the scheduled by-election, weighted to be representative by age, gender and 2024 General Election vote.

The sample size was very small, with only 147 respondents in the initial sample. Due to this, the margin of error will be large, in addition to uncertainty caused by the by-election being over a month away. However, this poll does seem to confirm the wider picture – as described by media coverage of the by-election and other constituency surveys (such as this telephone poll by Lord Ashcroft or this model by Britain Elects) – of a close race between Reform UK and the Labour Party.

How are you likely to vote in that by-election?
Turnout adjusted, ‘Don’t know’ excluded

• Reform UK: 36%
• Labour: 33%
• Conservative: 12%
• Liberal Democrats: 7%
• Green Party: 7%
• Other: 5%

How are you likely to vote in that by-election?
Turnout adjusted, ‘Don’t know’ included

• Reform UK: 30%
• Labour: 27%
• Conservative: 10%
• Liberal Democrats: 6%
• Green Party: 5%
• Other: 4%
• Don’t know: 17%

How are you likely to vote in that by-election?
Raw vote, not adjusted for turnout

• Reform UK: 26%
• Labour: 19%
• Conservative: 5%
• Liberal Democrats: 4%
• Green Party: 4%
• Other: 2%
• Don’t know: 22%
• I would not vote: 18%

Full data tables can be found here

This poll was initiated solely by Find Out Now and not funded by any third party

Image used: Licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.