Find Out Now interviewed 1,020 Scottish adults online between 4th – 10th of August for The National. The final sample is weighted to be nationally representative by Gender, Age, Scottish region and 2024 General Election vote. Westminster questions weighted to 18+, remainder of survey to 16+.

Headline Westminster voting intention (turnout adjusted, don’t knows removed)

• SNP lead comfortably on 29%, with Labour second on 18% and Reform UK close behind on 17%
• The Conservatives (10%), Greens (10%) and Lib Dems (10%) are locked in a three-way tie for fourth
• Reform’s vote is strikingly resilient — they retain 70% of their 2024 voters, versus 79% for the SNP, 56% for the Conservatives and just 48% for Labour
• Almost a third of the Tories’ 2024 vote (30%) has gone directly to Reform
• The Greens top the poll among 18–29s (32%), ahead of the SNP (21%)

Independence (turnout adjusted)

• Yes 48%, No 45%, Don’t know 7% — excluding don’t knows, that’s Yes 52 / No 48
• The age gradient is stark: 67% of 16–29s back Yes, falling to just 27% among the over-75s
• Glasgow is the strongest Yes region (61%); Mid Scotland & Fife and North East Scotland lean No
• Around 30% of 2024 Labour voters would vote Yes
• Women are slightly more pro-independence than men (Yes 50% vs 46%)

Unilateral declaration of independence (UDI)

• Scots oppose the Scottish Government unilaterally declaring independence by 43% to 34% (23% don’t know)
• Opposition is intense: 38% strongly oppose vs 25% strongly support
• Even among 2024 SNP voters, support isn’t universal — 69% strongly support, but around 9% oppose
• Younger voters are the most receptive: 16–29s split 46% support / 30% oppose, while over-75s oppose by 66% to 20%

Trust in Andy Burnham to act in Scotland’s interests

• Distrust outweighs trust roughly 2.5 to 1: 49% say “not very much”/”not at all” versus 20% “a great deal”/”a fair amount.” Don’t know sits high at 31%, reflecting limited familiarity.
• Sharp gender gap: men trust him more than women (25% vs 15%) and are far less likely to say don’t know (22% vs 40%).
• Trust rises with age — from 17% among 16-29s to 30% among over-75s — while “don’t know” falls steadily with age (39% to 20%), suggesting older voters simply have a firmer view either way.
• By 2024 vote, Labour voters are most trusting (44%), followed by Lib Dems (35%) and Conservatives (30%). SNP (11%) and Reform (10%) voters trust him least.
• Distrust is highest among Reform (81%) and SNP (78%) voters — the two groups bookending the spectrum agree on this one.
• Regionally, trust is lowest in the Highlands and Islands (9%) and highest in West Scotland (28%).

“No. 10 North” (moving Downing Street operations to Manchester): meaningful step or gimmick?

• Scots lean sceptical: 49% call it a gimmick, 19% a meaningful step, 33% don’t know.
• Gender split mirrors Q7: men are twice as likely as women to see it as a gimmick (57% vs 41%), while women are far more likely to say don’t know (44% vs 20%).
• Younger voters are the most open to it being meaningful (21% of 16-29s, 28% of 30-39s) and least likely to call it a gimmick (39% and 36%); over-75s are the most dismissive (64% gimmick).
• Reform voters are the most sceptical of any group by far — 86% call it a gimmick, just 4% see it as meaningful.
• SNP (66%) and Conservative (65%) voters also lean heavily toward “gimmick.”
• Labour voters are a striking outlier: 40% call it meaningful versus 39% gimmick — an almost even split, unlike every other party’s voters. Green voters are the single most positive group, with 42% calling it meaningful, ahead of Labour.
• Regionally, Highlands and Islands voters are most sceptical (57% gimmick), West Scotland the most receptive (26% meaningful, the highest of any region).

Q9 — Concern about the growth of far-right politics in Scotland

• 45% are concerned (very/fairly) versus 27% unconcerned; “don’t know” is high at 27%, similar to the pattern seen in Q7/Q8.
• Overall concern is near-identical by gender (45% both), but the composition differs sharply: men are far more likely to say they’re “not concerned” (38% vs 18%), while women are far more likely to say “don’t know” (37% vs 17%).
• Concern is highest at the age extremes — 58% among over-75s and 52% among 16-29s — dipping to 38% among 40-54s and 55-64s.
• A stark partisan divide: Green (81%) and SNP (73%) voters are most concerned, while Reform UK voters are overwhelmingly unconcerned (84% not concerned, just 11% concerned) — the widest gap in the dataset. Treat Green’s figure with some caution given a small base (n=24).
• Regionally, Glasgow is most concerned (73%), North East Scotland least (35%).

Q10 — Has Reform UK’s growth made far-right extremists more confident?

• Half of Scots (51%) think it’s made extremists more confident; only 3% think less confident; 16% see no difference; 31% don’t know.
• Men are more likely to say “more confident” (55% vs 47%), women more likely “don’t know” (39% vs 22%) — the same gender pattern as Q9.
• Belief that extremists feel more confident is highest among 16-29s (63%) and declines through middle age, dipping to 43% among 55-64s before rising again among older groups.
• Reform UK’s own voters are the clear outlier: only 16% say “more confident,” while 64% say “no difference” — they largely reject the premise that other parties’ voters accept. Every other party’s voters lean heavily toward “more confident” (Green 85%, SNP 78%, Lib Dem 73%, Labour 63%), though Green (n=24) and Lib Dem (n=59) bases are relatively small.
• Regionally, Glasgow is most likely to say “more confident” (70%), Highlands and Islands least (40%).

Download full data tables here