Find Out Now have conducted a survey on Scottish independence on behalf of the Alba Party, finding a 52-48 lead in favour of Yes (turnout-adjusted and excluding “Don’t know” respondents).

Tables

• Turnout-adjusted
• Non turnout-adjusted

Find Out Now interviewed a sample of 1,058 respondents between the 16th and 23rd October, weighted to be representative of Scotland by: Gender, Age, Region, and GE2024.

Important notes

Not everyone who answers a poll about voting, would actually vote in a real election or referendum. It is important to note that unlikeliness to vote is not the same as selecting “I don’t know”. We adjust the results to the voting intention question (Yes, No, or I don’t know) by only including those who say they are most likely to turn up to vote. Our voting likelihood adjustment sets the threshold for counting a response as a vote or not so that the overall turnout would be 85%, as it was in the actual Independence Referendum in 2014. in this case, the threshold is set at 6, so anyone who says they are “6” to “10 – Extremely likely” to vote are included.

The voting intention results before turnout likelihood is adjusted for is reversed, a marginal lead for No. Yes respondents answer that they are more likely compared to No respondents, so more of their voting intention answers are included in the turnout adjusted results.

It is unclear whether this would accurately reflect the respondents’ behaviour in a real world referendum. When faced with a real-world outcome they do not like, they may become more motivated to act. In addition, our (and others’) hypothetical voting intention polling does not, and cannot, take into account the campaigning that would precede a real-world referendum or election. No could perform better than expected, and tip the balance back, but the reverse could also be true.

Finally, it is important to note that the sample contains no 16-17 year olds, as our panel is 18 years old and older only. The 2014 Independence Referendum allowed 16-17 to vote.