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MRP Voting Intention Poll: SNP would overtake Tories

Chris Holbrook Find Out Now Market Research

Chris Holbrook

10th Feb, 2023 | 5 mins read

Our large-scale MRP voting intention poll of over 28,000 voters, with political experts Electoral Calculus and for The Telegraph, finds that a snap election would leave the Conservatives in third place, behind the SNP

We asked GB residents whether and how they intend to vote if there were an imminent general election, as well as who would make the best Prime Minister and their attitudes to Conservative sleaze.

Key points

  • Labour lead of 25% over Conservatives
  • Conservatives forecast to have fewer seats than SNP
  • Conservatives losing support most in their strongest seats
  • The Prime Minister among sixteen cabinet ministers predicted to lose their seats

The headline voting intention is shown in the column in bold:

PartyVote share at GE 2019Previous poll Feb 2022Previous poll Sep 2022Current Estimated Vote Share (pc)Estimated Change (pc)
Footnote: the predicted vote share percentages differ from the basic voting intention from the poll, as the regression techniques and models operate differently from classic polling analysis. This modifies the parties’ vote shares slightly. See below for analysis of don’t knows and refuseds.

This gives an estimated Labour lead over the Conservatives of 25%, which would lead to a Labour landslide in a general election.

Electoral Calculus applied MRP regression techniques to make predictions for each individual seat in GB. The number of seats predicted to be won by party is as follows:

PartyNumber of Seats
at GE 2019
Number of Seats

According to the predictions, the Conservative losses would be so stark that they wouldn’t even be the official opposition. SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn would be the leader of the opposition.

Full information and analysis, including individual seat change predictions can be found on Electoral Calculus’ article here

Technical Details

Find Out Now polled 28,191 GB adults online between 27 January – 5 February 2023. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.

The “Very strong” Conservative seats were defined as the top 120 seats by Conservative vote share at the last general election. The sample size of this sub-group was 5,064. The “Quite strong” Conservative seats were defined as the next 120 seats ranked by Conservative vote share at the last general election. The sample size of this sub-group was 4,988. Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.

Full Data Tables are available for download as an Excel spreadsheet.