Labour are predicted to comfortably win the by-election, whether the run-off is against the Greens or Reform

Turnout adjusted, ‘Don’t know’ and ‘Would not vote’ removed. Find Out Now interviewed a sample of 1,505 Greater Manchester adults on 7th to 13th July which is representative by: Gender, Age, District, Ethnicity and 2024 General Election

The headline findings from the survey:

• Labour will win the by-election with relative ease. Although they don’t gain a majority of votes cast, they are far ahead of other parties in the first vote, and are clearly ahead in the run-off whether that is against the Greens (64-36) or Reform (66-34)
• Reform may narrowly miss out on the run-off. However the gap between them and the Greens is within the margin of error, making second place too close to call
• This survey predicts overall turnout to only be 39%. However, that would still be the highest ever turnout recorded for a Greater Manchester mayoral election

Our methodology:

• We ask respondents how likely they are to vote in the upcoming Greater Manchester mayoral by-election. Only those who say ‘definitely’ or ‘very likely’ are included in the headline voting intention
• If a respondent was eligible but didn’t vote at the last general election, they are only included in the final headline calculation if they say they are ‘definitely’ going to vote this time. This is because past voting behaviour is generally more predictive than their declared intentions
• For the headline VI, we take the top two candidates from the first vote, then count the second votes from other respondents, if they selected either of the top two candidates
• The data is filtered and weighted to be representative by Gender, Age, District, Ethnicity and 2024 General Election vote

Full data tables can be found here

This poll was initiated solely by Find Out Now and not funded by any third party

Find Out Now is an MRS company partner, a member of the British Polling Council and abides by their rules. To find out more about our research offer, please visit our services page or contact ask@findoutnow.co.uk