Political experts Electoral Calculus have produced a Dynamic MRP prediction of the May 5th local elections in Great Britain, combining a large scale poll conducted by Find Out Now from 4-8th of April, with a top up poll from 27-28th of April. The results show a swing of 6% from Conservatives to Labour, with a predicted 3,500 council seats going to Labour, and fewer than 1000 to Conservatives.
The number of councils in England and Wales predicted to be controlled by each party is shown in this table:
|Party in Control|
|NOC / Coalition||37||26||−11|
The prediction for number of wards won in England and Wales is:
About the survey
Find Out Now conducted two linked polls:
Wave 1: 12,115 residents of 201 GB district and unitary councils online between 4-8 April 2022.
Wave 2: 1,749 residents of the same districts online between 27-28 April 2022.
The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade and past voting patterns. Dynamic regression techniques were used to combine the polls and infer ward and council results.
Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.