Political experts Electoral Calculus have produced a Dynamic MRP prediction of the May 5th local elections in Great Britain, combining a large scale poll conducted by Find Out Now from 4-8th of April, with a top up poll from 27-28th of April. The results show a swing of 6% from Conservatives to Labour, with a predicted 3,500 council seats going to Labour, and fewer than 1000 to Conservatives.

The number of councils in England and Wales predicted to be controlled by each party is shown in this table:

Party in Control of Council	Current Number of Councils	Predicted Number of Councils	Predicted Change
CON	43	39	−4
LAB	69	85	+16
LIB	11	14	+3
Plaid Cymru	1	1	0
Independent	3	3	0
NOC / Coalition	37	26	−11
Total	164	168	+4

The prediction for number of wards won in England and Wales is:

Party	Current Wards (May 2021)	Predicted Wards	Predicted Change
CON	1,526	978	−548
LAB	2,695	3,514	+819
LIB	613	662	+49
Plaid Cymru	193	151	−42
Green	49	23	−26
Independent/Other	516	265	−251
Vacant	1	0	−1
Total	5,593	5,593	0

For further analysis please visit Electoral Calculus

About the survey

Find Out Now conducted two linked polls:

Wave 1: 12,115 residents of 201 GB district and unitary councils online between 4-8 April 2022.

Wave 2: 1,749 residents of the same districts online between 27-28 April 2022.

The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade and past voting patterns. Dynamic regression techniques were used to combine the polls and infer ward and council results.

Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.

Data tables are available for the first wave, and the second wave.