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Conservative decline continues to just 1% lead over Labour

Chris Holbrook Find Out Now Market Research

Chris Holbrook

6th Dec, 2021 | 3 mins read

Our latest large-scale MRP poll for The Telegraph with Electoral Calculus, surveying over 10,200 GB Adults from the 29th of November to 1st of December, shows a continued loss of support for the Conservatives, and their lead reduced to just 1% should an election be called now. This follows our polling in September, which showed their lead had fallen to 4% from 13% in May this year.

Party GE 2019 % Vote
Telegraph poll May 2021 Telegraph poll Sep 2021 Current Estimated % Vote Share Estimated % Change
CON 45 43 37 36 -9
LAB 33 30 33 35 +2
LIB 11 11 12 11 0
Reform 2 2 4 3 +1
Green 3 9 8 8 +6

Electoral Calculus carried out multi-level regression and post-stratification techniques with the data and have predicted the following results by seat:

Party Number of Seats at GE 2019 Predicted Number of Seats Predicted Change
CON 365 288 -77
LAB 203 271 +68
SNP 48 59 +11
LIB 11 8 -3
Plaid 4 5 +1

For a full list of seats predicted to change hands, please read more on Electoral Calculus’ article.

“Our latest poll with Find Out Now shows the Conservatives are not doing well with the public. Labour is now about equal in popularity and likely to win nearly as many seats if there were a sudden election. Given the parliamentary arithmetic, it could be more likely for Keir Starmer to be Prime Minister. That’s a big change since Labour’s relatively poor performance at the local elections earlier this year.”

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus

“A combination of a tough month for the Conservatives and Keir Starmer belatedly benefiting from media appearances are making some previously solid Tory seats look shakey.”

Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now

Full data tables are available here