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Westminster Voting Intention: Rishi's Reshuffle Backfires

Alastair Boland Find Out Now Market Research

Alastair Boland

18th Nov, 2023 | 4 mins read

Find Out Now have conducted a hypothetical Westminster voting intention poll of a nationally representative sample of 2,026 respondents between the 13th to the 14th of November, immediately following Rishi Sunak’s reshuffle and hiring of ex-PM (now Lord) David Cameron. The turnout-adjusted results show Labour up two points at 46%, and the Conservatives down four points to 19%, since our last poll on 31st October.

Analysis

Since our last voting intention poll on the 31st October, Labour has seen their lead over the Conservatives increase to +27% from +22%. Sunak’s reshuffle has apparently backfired. In addition to Labour gaining 2% since the 31st October, Reform have also gained 2% from 8% in October to 10% in this poll. 

Non-turnout-adjusted results of poll

How Turnout Adjustment Works

Our methodology involved surveying 4,025 adults from Great Britain, carefully selecting a nationally representative sample of 2,026 respondents by applying extensive filters based on gender, age, social class, region, Brexit Vote, and 2019 General Election. Subsequently, we adjusted the data for voter turnout, focusing on those who rated their likelihood to vote at 6 or higher on a scale ranging from “0 – Certain not to vote” to “10 – Certain to vote.” This approach gives a comparable turnout percentage to the last General Election in 2019.

Tables

On a scale from 0 to 10, how likely do you think you are to vote if there was a general election tomorrow? (0 – certain not to vote, 10 – certain to vote).

If there was an election tomorrow, who would you vote for?

On a scale from 0 to 10, how likely do you think you are to vote if there was a general election tomorrow? (0 – certain not to vote, 10 – certain to vote) (Turnout adjusted) 

If there was an election tomorrow, who would you vote for? (Turnout adjusted)

About this Survey

Find Out Now interviewed 4,025 GB adults from 2023-11-13 to 2023-11-14, and produced a sample of 2,026 respondents which is nationally representative by: Gender, Age, Social Class, Region, Brexit Vote, and 2019 General Election.

Find Out Now are members of the British Polling Council and Market Research Society and abide by their rules.

For further information, or to request a poll or survey, contact us on ask@findoutnow.co.uk

Photo by Massimiliano Morosinotto on Unsplash