The results or our most recent MRP poll with Electoral Calculus, published on the 31st of May by GBNews and The Daily Mail, show a near collapse in support for the Conservatives, suggesting 18 cabinet members could lose their seats on the 4th of July. Fieldwork was conducted from 20 May to 27 May 2024, with a sample size of over 10,000 people.

Headline MRP voting intention poll results

Party	GE 2019		Predicted Election Result
	Votes	Seats	Votes from poll	Average of recent national polls	MRP Seats
CON	45%	376	19%	23%	72
LAB	33%	197	46%	45%	493
LIB	12%	8	10%	9%	39
Reform	2%	0	12%	11%	0
Green	3%	1	8%	7%	2
SNP	4%	48	3%	3%	22
Plaid	0%	2	0.5%	1%	4
OTH	1%	0	2%	1%	0

Eighteen Conservative Cabinet Members are likely to lose their seats.

• Oliver Dowden, James Cleverly, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch, Claire Coutinho, Mel Stride, Gillian Keegan, Mark Harper, David Davies, Victoria Prentis, Esther McVey, Andrew Mitchell, Johnny Mercer (all to Labour)
• Alex Chalk, Michael Tomlinson (both to Lib Dem)
• Alister Jack (to SNP); Simon Hart (to Plaid Cyrmu)

Conservative cabinet members who are likely to keep their seats and might contest the next Conservative leadership contest:

• Jeremy Hunt, Victoria Atkins, Tom Tugendhat, Steve Barclay, Michelle Donelan

About the survey

Find Out Now polled 10,390 GB adults online between 20-27 May 2024. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used by Electoral Calculus to infer projected seat results.

Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus are both members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.

Further analysis is available on Electoral Calculus’ website.

Data tables can be found here.

Photo by Thomas Kelley on Unsplash