A poll conducted by Find Out Now and election experts Electoral Calculus predicts a Conservative majority of 122 in the House of Commons if a snap election were to be called now.
Find Out Now polled over 14,000 voters in Great Britain between the 13th and 15th of May, after the local elections. Classic weighting was applied and, in addition, Electoral Calculus used Multilevel Regression with Poststratification (MRP).
These MRP techniques allow predictions to be made for each individual seat in GB. The number of seats predicted to be won by each party is shown in the next table
|Party||Number of Seats at GE 2019||Predicted Number of Seats||Predicted Change|
Changes by Region
The Conservatives are predicted to pick up 23 seats from Labour in the Midlands and North of England, but only 6 seats in the London and the South. This includes more ‘Red Wall’ seats in Teesside, Sunderland, West Yorkshire and South Yorkshire.
The SNP are predicted to gain 10 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.
In Wales, the Conservatives are predicted to lose two seats.
The Greens are predicted to hold Brighton Pavilion and to gain Bristol West from Labour.
Changes by MP
Some notable MPs are in danger of losing their seats:
- Ed Miliband, former Labour leader, Doncaster North (Con)
- Tim Farron, former Lib Dem leader, Westmorland and Lonsdale (Con)
- Yvette Cooper (Lab) in Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford (Con)
- Jon Cruddas (Lab) in Dagenham and Rainham (Con)
- Alister Jack (Con), Scottish Secretary, Dumfries and Galloway (SNP)
Seats Predicted to Change Hands
|Seat||Current||Prediction||MP at 2019|
|Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine||CON||SNP||Andrew Bowie|
|Banff and Buchan||CON||SNP||David Duguid|
|Barnsley East||LAB||CON||Stephanie Peacock|
|Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk||CON||SNP||John Lamont|
|Birmingham Erdington||LAB||CON||Jack Dromey|
|Bradford South||LAB||CON||Judith Cummins|
|Bristol North West||LAB||CON||Darren Jones|
|Bristol West||LAB||Green||Thangam Debbonaire|
|Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross||LIB||SNP||Jamie Stone|
|Coventry North West||LAB||CON||Taiwo Owatemi|
|Coventry South||LAB||CON||Zarah Sultana|
|Dagenham and Rainham||LAB||CON||Jon Cruddas|
|Doncaster Central||LAB||CON||Rosie Winterton|
|Doncaster North||LAB||CON||Ed Miliband|
|Dumfries and Galloway||CON||SNP||Alister Jack|
|Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale||CON||SNP||David Mundell|
|Edinburgh South||LAB||SNP||Ian Murray|
|Edinburgh West||LIB||SNP||Christine Jardine|
|Fife North East||LIB||SNP||Wendy Chamberlain|
|Houghton and Sunderland South||LAB||CON||Bridget Phillipson|
|Hull East||LAB||CON||Karl Turner|
|Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford||LAB||CON||Yvette Cooper|
|Oldham East and Saddleworth||LAB||CON||Debbie Abrahams|
|Plymouth Sutton and Devonport||LAB||CON||Luke Pollard|
|Reading East||LAB||CON||Matt Rodda|
|Sheffield Hallam||LAB||LIB||Olivia Blake|
|Stockton North||LAB||CON||Alex Cunningham|
|Sunderland Central||LAB||CON||Julie Elliott|
|Walsall South||LAB||CON||Valerie Vaz|
|Warwick and Leamington||LAB||CON||Matt Western|
|Weaver Vale||LAB||CON||Mike Amesbury|
|Wentworth and Dearne||LAB||CON||John Healey|
|Westmorland and Lonsdale||LIB||CON||Tim Farron|
|Wolverhampton South East||LAB||CON||Pat McFadden|
|Ynys Mon||CON||Plaid||Virginia Crosbie|
“As the vaccine rollout continues to endear the Conservatives to a beleaguered nation. Labour’s rebuild seems to have not progressed past the destructive phase. The Greens are benefiting particularly at the moment from Labour’s weakness.”Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now
“The aftermath of the local elections has seen a slide in support away from Labour. The Conservatives now have a double digit-lead over Labour, and could be on course for a landslide majority. The existential question is looming large for Labour as its traditional supporters continue to abandon it. A divided opposition with votes split between Labour, Lib Dems and Greens pretty makes it easy for the Conservatives to win. Only in Scotland and Wales, where the Conservatives are not the largest party, does their winning formula break down.”Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus
For further information about the MRP results, and MRP in general, please contact Martin Baxter at Electoral Calculus.