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Our poll for The Telegraph: Tory landslide predicted

Chris Holbrook Find Out Now Market Research

Chris Holbrook

18th May, 2021 | 9 mins read

A poll conducted by Find Out Now and election experts Electoral Calculus predicts a Conservative majority of 122 in the House of Commons if a snap election were to be called now.

Find Out Now polled over 14,000 voters in Great Britain between the 13th and 15th of May, after the local elections. Classic weighting was applied and, in addition, Electoral Calculus used Multilevel Regression with Poststratification (MRP).

These MRP techniques allow predictions to be made for each individual seat in GB. The number of seats predicted to be won by each party is shown in the next table

Party Number of Seats at GE 2019 Predicted Number of Seats Predicted Change
CON 365 386 +21
LAB 203 172 -31
SNP 48 58 +10
LIB 11 9 -2
Plaid 4 5 +1
Green 1 2 +1
Reform 0 0 0
Total 632 632 0

Changes by Region

The Conservatives are predicted to pick up 23 seats from Labour in the Midlands and North of England, but only 6 seats in the London and the South. This includes more ‘Red Wall’ seats in Teesside, Sunderland, West Yorkshire and South Yorkshire.

The SNP are predicted to gain 10 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.

In Wales, the Conservatives are predicted to lose two seats.

The Greens are predicted to hold Brighton Pavilion and to gain Bristol West from Labour.

Changes by MP

Some notable MPs are in danger of losing their seats:

  • Ed Miliband, former Labour leader, Doncaster North (Con)
  • Tim Farron, former Lib Dem leader, Westmorland and Lonsdale (Con)
  • Yvette Cooper (Lab) in Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford (Con)
  • Jon Cruddas (Lab) in Dagenham and Rainham (Con)
  • Alister Jack (Con), Scottish Secretary, Dumfries and Galloway (SNP)

Seats Predicted to Change Hands

Seat Current Prediction MP at 2019
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine CON SNP Andrew Bowie
Banff and Buchan CON SNP David Duguid
Barnsley East LAB CON Stephanie Peacock
Bedford LAB CON Mohammad Yasin
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk CON SNP John Lamont
Birmingham Erdington LAB CON Jack Dromey
Bradford South LAB CON Judith Cummins
Bridgend CON LAB Jamie Wallis
Bristol North West LAB CON Darren Jones
Bristol West LAB Green Thangam Debbonaire
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross LIB SNP Jamie Stone
Canterbury LAB CON Rosie Duffield
Chesterfield LAB CON Toby Perkins
Coventry North West LAB CON Taiwo Owatemi
Coventry South LAB CON Zarah Sultana
Dagenham and Rainham LAB CON Jon Cruddas
Doncaster Central LAB CON Rosie Winterton
Doncaster North LAB CON Ed Miliband
Dumfries and Galloway CON SNP Alister Jack
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale CON SNP David Mundell
Edinburgh South LAB SNP Ian Murray
Edinburgh West LIB SNP Christine Jardine
Fife North East LIB SNP Wendy Chamberlain
Halifax LAB CON Holly Lynch
Hartlepool LAB CON Mike Hill
Hemsworth LAB CON Jon Trickett
Houghton and Sunderland South LAB CON Bridget Phillipson
Hull East LAB CON Karl Turner
Lewes CON LIB Maria Caulfield
Moray CON SNP Douglas Ross
Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford LAB CON Yvette Cooper
Oldham East and Saddleworth LAB CON Debbie Abrahams
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport LAB CON Luke Pollard
Reading East LAB CON Matt Rodda
Sheffield Hallam LAB LIB Olivia Blake
Stockton North LAB CON Alex Cunningham
Sunderland Central LAB CON Julie Elliott
Walsall South LAB CON Valerie Vaz
Wansbeck LAB CON Ian Lavery
Warwick and Leamington LAB CON Matt Western
Weaver Vale LAB CON Mike Amesbury
Wentworth and Dearne LAB CON John Healey
Westmorland and Lonsdale LIB CON Tim Farron
Wolverhampton South East LAB CON Pat McFadden
Ynys Mon CON Plaid Virginia Crosbie


“As the vaccine rollout continues to endear the Conservatives to a beleaguered nation. Labour’s rebuild seems to have not progressed past the destructive phase. The Greens are benefiting particularly at the moment from Labour’s weakness.”

Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now

“The aftermath of the local elections has seen a slide in support away from Labour. The Conservatives now have a double digit-lead over Labour, and could be on course for a landslide majority. The existential question is looming large for Labour as its traditional supporters continue to abandon it. A divided opposition with votes split between Labour, Lib Dems and Greens pretty makes it easy for the Conservatives to win. Only in Scotland and Wales, where the Conservatives are not the largest party, does their winning formula break down.”

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus

Full tables for the classic weighted results are available for download here

For further information about the MRP results, and MRP in general, please contact Martin Baxter at Electoral Calculus.

Photo by Massimiliano Morosinotto on Unsplash