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Our poll for The Telegraph: Tory landslide predicted

Chris Holbrook Find Out Now Market Research

Chris Holbrook

18th May, 2021 | 9 mins read

A poll conducted by Find Out Now and election experts Electoral Calculus predicts a Conservative majority of 122 in the House of Commons if a snap election were to be called now.

Find Out Now polled over 14,000 voters in Great Britain between the 13th and 15th of May, after the local elections. Classic weighting was applied and, in addition, Electoral Calculus used Multilevel Regression with Poststratification (MRP).

These MRP techniques allow predictions to be made for each individual seat in GB. The number of seats predicted to be won by each party is shown in the next table

PartyNumber of Seats at GE 2019Predicted Number of SeatsPredicted Change
CON365386+21
LAB203172-31
SNP4858+10
LIB119-2
Plaid45+1
Green12+1
Reform000
Total6326320

Changes by Region

The Conservatives are predicted to pick up 23 seats from Labour in the Midlands and North of England, but only 6 seats in the London and the South. This includes more ‘Red Wall’ seats in Teesside, Sunderland, West Yorkshire and South Yorkshire.

The SNP are predicted to gain 10 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.

In Wales, the Conservatives are predicted to lose two seats.

The Greens are predicted to hold Brighton Pavilion and to gain Bristol West from Labour.

Changes by MP

Some notable MPs are in danger of losing their seats:

  • Ed Miliband, former Labour leader, Doncaster North (Con)
  • Tim Farron, former Lib Dem leader, Westmorland and Lonsdale (Con)
  • Yvette Cooper (Lab) in Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford (Con)
  • Jon Cruddas (Lab) in Dagenham and Rainham (Con)
  • Alister Jack (Con), Scottish Secretary, Dumfries and Galloway (SNP)

Seats Predicted to Change Hands

SeatCurrentPredictionMP at 2019
Aberdeenshire West and KincardineCONSNPAndrew Bowie
Banff and BuchanCONSNPDavid Duguid
Barnsley EastLABCONStephanie Peacock
BedfordLABCONMohammad Yasin
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkCONSNPJohn Lamont
Birmingham ErdingtonLABCONJack Dromey
Bradford SouthLABCONJudith Cummins
BridgendCONLABJamie Wallis
Bristol North WestLABCONDarren Jones
Bristol WestLABGreenThangam Debbonaire
Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossLIBSNPJamie Stone
CanterburyLABCONRosie Duffield
ChesterfieldLABCONToby Perkins
Coventry North WestLABCONTaiwo Owatemi
Coventry SouthLABCONZarah Sultana
Dagenham and RainhamLABCONJon Cruddas
Doncaster CentralLABCONRosie Winterton
Doncaster NorthLABCONEd Miliband
Dumfries and GallowayCONSNPAlister Jack
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleCONSNPDavid Mundell
Edinburgh SouthLABSNPIan Murray
Edinburgh WestLIBSNPChristine Jardine
Fife North EastLIBSNPWendy Chamberlain
HalifaxLABCONHolly Lynch
HartlepoolLABCONMike Hill
HemsworthLABCONJon Trickett
Houghton and Sunderland SouthLABCONBridget Phillipson
Hull EastLABCONKarl Turner
LewesCONLIBMaria Caulfield
MorayCONSNPDouglas Ross
Normanton, Pontefract and CastlefordLABCONYvette Cooper
Oldham East and SaddleworthLABCONDebbie Abrahams
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportLABCONLuke Pollard
Reading EastLABCONMatt Rodda
Sheffield HallamLABLIBOlivia Blake
Stockton NorthLABCONAlex Cunningham
Sunderland CentralLABCONJulie Elliott
Walsall SouthLABCONValerie Vaz
WansbeckLABCONIan Lavery
Warwick and LeamingtonLABCONMatt Western
Weaver ValeLABCONMike Amesbury
Wentworth and DearneLABCONJohn Healey
Westmorland and LonsdaleLIBCONTim Farron
Wolverhampton South EastLABCONPat McFadden
Ynys MonCONPlaidVirginia Crosbie

Quotes

“As the vaccine rollout continues to endear the Conservatives to a beleaguered nation. Labour’s rebuild seems to have not progressed past the destructive phase. The Greens are benefiting particularly at the moment from Labour’s weakness.”

Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now

“The aftermath of the local elections has seen a slide in support away from Labour. The Conservatives now have a double digit-lead over Labour, and could be on course for a landslide majority. The existential question is looming large for Labour as its traditional supporters continue to abandon it. A divided opposition with votes split between Labour, Lib Dems and Greens pretty makes it easy for the Conservatives to win. Only in Scotland and Wales, where the Conservatives are not the largest party, does their winning formula break down.”

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus

Full tables for the classic weighted results are available for download here

For further information about the MRP results, and MRP in general, please contact Martin Baxter at Electoral Calculus.

Photo by Massimiliano Morosinotto on Unsplash