A poll conducted by Find Out Now and election experts Electoral Calculus predicts a Conservative majority of 122 in the House of Commons if a snap election were to be called now.

Find Out Now polled over 14,000 voters in Great Britain between the 13th and 15th of May, after the local elections. Classic weighting was applied and, in addition, Electoral Calculus used Multilevel Regression with Poststratification (MRP).

These MRP techniques allow predictions to be made for each individual seat in GB. The number of seats predicted to be won by each party is shown in the next table

Party	Number of Seats at GE 2019	Predicted Number of Seats	Predicted Change
CON	365	386	+21
LAB	203	172	-31
SNP	48	58	+10
LIB	11	9	-2
Plaid	4	5	+1
Green	1	2	+1
Reform	0	0	0
Total	632	632	0

Changes by Region

The Conservatives are predicted to pick up 23 seats from Labour in the Midlands and North of England, but only 6 seats in the London and the South. This includes more ‘Red Wall’ seats in Teesside, Sunderland, West Yorkshire and South Yorkshire.

The SNP are predicted to gain 10 seats in Scotland. This might be reduced if there is pro-Unionist tactical voting, which is not included in the MRP model.

In Wales, the Conservatives are predicted to lose two seats.

The Greens are predicted to hold Brighton Pavilion and to gain Bristol West from Labour.

Changes by MP

Some notable MPs are in danger of losing their seats:

• Ed Miliband, former Labour leader, Doncaster North (Con)
• Tim Farron, former Lib Dem leader, Westmorland and Lonsdale (Con)
• Yvette Cooper (Lab) in Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford (Con)
• Jon Cruddas (Lab) in Dagenham and Rainham (Con)
• Alister Jack (Con), Scottish Secretary, Dumfries and Galloway (SNP)

Seats Predicted to Change Hands

Seat	Current	Prediction	MP at 2019
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	CON	SNP	Andrew Bowie
Banff and Buchan	CON	SNP	David Duguid
Barnsley East	LAB	CON	Stephanie Peacock
Bedford	LAB	CON	Mohammad Yasin
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	CON	SNP	John Lamont
Birmingham Erdington	LAB	CON	Jack Dromey
Bradford South	LAB	CON	Judith Cummins
Bridgend	CON	LAB	Jamie Wallis
Bristol North West	LAB	CON	Darren Jones
Bristol West	LAB	Green	Thangam Debbonaire
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross	LIB	SNP	Jamie Stone
Canterbury	LAB	CON	Rosie Duffield
Chesterfield	LAB	CON	Toby Perkins
Coventry North West	LAB	CON	Taiwo Owatemi
Coventry South	LAB	CON	Zarah Sultana
Dagenham and Rainham	LAB	CON	Jon Cruddas
Doncaster Central	LAB	CON	Rosie Winterton
Doncaster North	LAB	CON	Ed Miliband
Dumfries and Galloway	CON	SNP	Alister Jack
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	CON	SNP	David Mundell
Edinburgh South	LAB	SNP	Ian Murray
Edinburgh West	LIB	SNP	Christine Jardine
Fife North East	LIB	SNP	Wendy Chamberlain
Halifax	LAB	CON	Holly Lynch
Hartlepool	LAB	CON	Mike Hill
Hemsworth	LAB	CON	Jon Trickett
Houghton and Sunderland South	LAB	CON	Bridget Phillipson
Hull East	LAB	CON	Karl Turner
Lewes	CON	LIB	Maria Caulfield
Moray	CON	SNP	Douglas Ross
Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford	LAB	CON	Yvette Cooper
Oldham East and Saddleworth	LAB	CON	Debbie Abrahams
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	LAB	CON	Luke Pollard
Reading East	LAB	CON	Matt Rodda
Sheffield Hallam	LAB	LIB	Olivia Blake
Stockton North	LAB	CON	Alex Cunningham
Sunderland Central	LAB	CON	Julie Elliott
Walsall South	LAB	CON	Valerie Vaz
Wansbeck	LAB	CON	Ian Lavery
Warwick and Leamington	LAB	CON	Matt Western
Weaver Vale	LAB	CON	Mike Amesbury
Wentworth and Dearne	LAB	CON	John Healey
Westmorland and Lonsdale	LIB	CON	Tim Farron
Wolverhampton South East	LAB	CON	Pat McFadden
Ynys Mon	CON	Plaid	Virginia Crosbie

Quotes

“As the vaccine rollout continues to endear the Conservatives to a beleaguered nation. Labour’s rebuild seems to have not progressed past the destructive phase. The Greens are benefiting particularly at the moment from Labour’s weakness.”

Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now

“The aftermath of the local elections has seen a slide in support away from Labour. The Conservatives now have a double digit-lead over Labour, and could be on course for a landslide majority. The existential question is looming large for Labour as its traditional supporters continue to abandon it. A divided opposition with votes split between Labour, Lib Dems and Greens pretty makes it easy for the Conservatives to win. Only in Scotland and Wales, where the Conservatives are not the largest party, does their winning formula break down.”

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus

Full tables for the classic weighted results are available for download here

For further information about the MRP results, and MRP in general, please contact Martin Baxter at Electoral Calculus.

Photo by Massimiliano Morosinotto on Unsplash