The results of an exclusive regression poll of over 10k Britons by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus for the Daily Telegraph, suggests the Conservatives would lose their majority if there were an imminent election. Their lead over Labour has fallen from 12pc to 4pc since our last poll in May.

The poll was carried out between the 6th and 8th of September, during which time the Conservatives had trailed and announced increases in National Insurance and other taxes.

If the results played out in an actual election, the Conservatives would be fifteen seats short of an overall majority with the largest gains for Labour and the SNP. The Greens and Reform Party showed the largest gains in vote share, but no predicted gains in seats.

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Basic VI	Predicted Votes	Predicted Seats	Change
CON	45%	365	37%	37%	311	−54
LAB	33%	203	33%	33%	244	+41
LIB	12%	11	10%	12%	12	+1
Reform	2%	0	4%	4%	0	0
Green	3%	1	9%	8%	1	0
SNP	4%	48	5%	5%	59	+11
PlaidC	0.5%	4	0.9%	1.1%	5	+1

Further analysis by Electoral Calculus available here

Full tables are available here

Fieldwork

Find Out Now polled 10,673 GB adults online between 6-8 Sep 2021. The sample was weighted to be representative by gender, age, social grade, other demographics and past voting patterns. Regression techniques were used to infer projected seat results.

Find Out Now is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.