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SNP still headed for clear victory

Chris Holbrook Find Out Now Market Research

Chris Holbrook

30th Mar, 2021 | 4 mins read

Our joint project with political consultancy, Electoral Calculus, and commissioned by the Daily Express, polled over 1,000 voters in Scotland between the 23rd and 26th of March.

We asked three questions. The first was on how people would vote if there were (hypothetically) a new independence referendum, and the other two were on how they will vote in the upcoming Scottish parliamentary elections.

Q1: If there were a referendum on Scottish independence tomorrow with the question, “Should Scotland be an independent country?”, how would you vote?

Results: Yes 48%, No 44%, Don’t Know 8% (excluding “Won’t vote”)

Q2 : In the Scottish Parliamentary election you will be given two votes. Your first vote will be to elect a single person to represent your constituency in the Scottish Parliament. If there were a Scottish Parliament election tomorrow, which of the following parties do you think you would vote for with your first, constituency vote?

Results: SNP=50, Con=21, Lab=17, Lib=5, Reform=1, Green=4

Q3 : Your second vote will be a party list vote to elect representatives from your region of Scotland using a form of proportional representation. If there were a Scottish Parliament election tomorrow, which of the following parties do you think you would vote for with your second, regional list vote?

Results: SNP=42, Con=21, Lab=16, Lib=5, Reform=2, Green=11

Electoral Calculus translated these results into a predicted number of seats won by each party: SNP=71, Con=24, Lab=19, Lib=4, Green=11

The full results can be downloaded here.

“The SNP continue to poll very well in Scotland, and this will likely translate into a large number of seats for them at Holyrood, with a good chance of an outright majority. Coupled with continuing public support for independence, this means that the constitutional question is still very active.”

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus

“Our figures show that the recent events in Scotland have not put off potential SNP voters. This polling was conducted before the announcement of the new Alba party, and it remains to be seen how popular that will be and whether it will split the SNP vote.”

Chris Holbrook, CEO of Find Out Now

About the survey

Find Out Now interviewed 1,022 people online in Scotland aged 16 and over from 23 March to 26 March 2021. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all Scottish adults by age, sex, region and past voting behaviour. Find Out Now is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Photo by Stewart M on Unsplash